相关知识

地球历经数百万年形成的石油，不仅仅是能源，更重要的还是原料,

如制造塑料、橡胶、化纤、化肥、医药、涂料等等，一旦耗尽怎么办？

What happens if we ran out of oil?

It took hundreds of millions of years to create the world’s oil reserves.

It took less than a century before oil became the commodity on which world power turned.

And it was little more than a century before fears were raised that we would run out of oil.

Fifty years further on, it’s less clear than ever how much is left. That’s because technological advance has confounded those who feared there were tight constraints on what could be drilled.

Fifty years further on, it’s less clear than ever how much is left. That’s because technological advance has confounded those who feared there were tight constraints on what could be drilled.

The rich rewards from oil have fuelled initiative and invention. As Professor Iain Stewart explains , this wasn't just a passion for scientific and engineering endeavour.

It was economic, political and strategic military calculation that drove the UKand theUSto find ways of becoming less dependent on supplies from theMiddle East.

Having done so, they started to innovate. When the pioneers of theNorth Seafirst found oil, they had little expectation that they could recover more than about a third of what they found.

But the rock formations that make up these fields have yielded far more than expected, maintaining the industry far longer. The next giant discovery to be developed in the North Sea – the 2-billion-barrel Johan Sverdrup field nearStavangerinNorway– has a target of 70% recovery.

With a lifespan stretching beyond the 2050s and into the third century of the oil industry, it may be possible to extract even more than that. Indeed, if past decades of technological advance are any guide, it’s very likely that more can be recovered.

That’s why the debate about Peak Oil – the point at which prices head sharply upwards because oil explorers fail to find replacement reserves – is seen as less of a threat than even ten years ago.

(节选：BBC 新闻/ Douglas Fraser  ）